I am always suspicious of stories that claim that 'the Premiership bubble is about to burst'. They usually reflect the tall poppy syndrome, a resentment of success. Whilst it is true that domestic television revenues have plateaued, those from overseas continue to increase.
However, there may be some real changes taking place. Karl Marx was wrong about many things, and his disciples got things even more wrong, but he had one important insight, the way in which technology drove change. In a sense, Saint-Simon had already had that insight, but he believed that science and technology would solve everything, a view which is certainly still widely held.
Just as satellite broadcasting made the riches of the Premier League possible, so digital technology provides a new set of challenges. It could well lead to a totally free market system in which more power is restored to the consumer, rather than the sofa fan being at the mercy of Sky and other providers.
As it is, as someone told The Times, 'The reality is that any person with a reasonable grasp of computers can access a pirate stream of any Premier League match, kicking off at any time.'
In addition all midweek Championship matches can be watched via Sky on the red button and club matches from League One and League Two can be seen on the iFollow service. On Tuesday, should I take a five hour round trip to London to watch Charlton play Oxford United, get home at 12.30pm, and pay £23.45 for a rail ticket when I could watch the game on my own laptop?
Now the EFL is a battle with Eleven Sports about showing live La Liga and Serie A matches during the Saturday afternoon blackout period. They have won the battle, as Eleven Sports have stopped screening La Liga matches, but they have probably lost the war.
Eleven Sports are almost certain to mount a legal challenge. As Martyn Ziegler commented in The Times yesterday, 'Effectively, now that Eleven Sports has a paper trail from the FA to Uefa to the Spanish FA and La Liga, it can mount a legal challenge'. I am not a lawyer, but my hunch is the blackout is a breach of competition law.
Ziegler commented, 'The fear has always been that a free market in TV would lead to a drop in attendances, which would affect the atmosphere, which would make the matches less attractive to broadcasters, which would mean less money from TV contracts'. The England v. Croatia match is an exemplar of what a match without a crowd can be like. But one could boost crowds by reducing admission prices, although that would affect another income stream.
Live TV coverage hits Championship crowds
An investigation by The Times found that attendance at midweek games in the Championship have fallen significantly since all matches were made available to watch live on television. Of course, midweek attendances are always lower than those at weekend matches. People cannot get away from work in time even for a home game and an away game may mean returning in the early hours of the morning. Cold or wet weather can also put fans off.
The normal drop in attendance would be about 4.5 per cent for a midweek game (I suspect the fall off may be greater in the lower leagues) but this season they have fallen by an average of 8.8 per cent (from 20,590 to 18,777).
The deal with Sky is worth £88m a year, rising to £120m annually from 2019 to 2024. This has to be shared with 72 clubs and contrasts with the bottom club in the Premier League earning a minimum of £100m from TV rights each season.
Each Championship club receives a £2.325m basic award of television money, £4.6m in solidarity payments from the Premier League, plus an additional £100,000 in facility fees for each home live match to cover any loss of gate revenues (£120k for Sunday games and £140k for Thursday night games). Away teams received £10,000 each time they appeared on TV
The Times did look at League One and League Two games to see if there had been any impact from live streaming on two Saturdays when it was allowed at 3pm because of the international break. The results were inconclusive, especially as attendances might have been boosted by supporters who might otherwise have gone to games in the top two divisions.
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