The Political Economy of Football V2

It looks very likely that the three teams promoted from the Championship last season will be relegated from the Premier League. What is clear is that the number of points required to finish above the dotted line has been trending downwards for a decade, as have the cumulative points haul of the three relegated sides. It now requires mismanagement on a pretty epic scale for an established Premier League club to be relegated. Seventeenth-placed Wolves are averaging less than a point per game but could feasibly fail to win another point and stay up with 26 points, which is what 18th-place Luton finished on last season. When Charlton were in the top flight the survival target was 40 points. Usually, however, they are putting up a better fight than this. The nine-point gap between 18th-placed Ipswich and Wolves in 17th is also the biggest gap at this stage in the Premier League era, and by some distance: only once has the deficit been more than three points. Yet even huge investment...

Typically, newcomers struggle to survive in the Premier League, especially in recent years — there’s nothing new there. But last season was the first time since 1998, and only the second time ever, that all three promoted Premier League clubs were relegated to the Championship. To provide some context to just how difficult it has been for Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton, last season’s relegated trio provide an unflattering reference point. Statistically, Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town were the worst bottom three in Premier League history. They picked up 66 points between them — 10 points fewer than the next lowest on record. Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton are currently on course to finish with a cumulative total of 63 points. They have two fewer wins than Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton at the same stage of the season and have conceded 174 goals compared to 178. The financial numbers are interesting, too, and, in many ways, highlight what promoted clubs are u...