The Political Economy of Football V2

Premier League clubs are on course to break the record for transfer spending this summer as they hire and fire managers at an unprecedented rate, underscoring the increasingly cut-throat economics of the world’s richest football league. With 12 days before the transfer window closes, the 20 clubs in English football’s top flight have spent a combined €2.7bn on transfers ahead of the new season, which kicks off this Friday evening. Spending is running ahead of the rate of last year’s record summer transfer window, when Premier League clubs had spent €2.6bn at the equivalent point, according to data from Transfermarkt. The outlay also exceeds the €2.3bn cumulatively spent by all of the clubs in Italy’s Serie A, the German Bundesliga and La Liga in Spain this summer. This summer’s biggest deals include Chelsea’s €138mn purchase of Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa and Manchester City’s €135mn deal to sign fellow England international Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest. Chelsea ha...

In the Premier League this season, heads are rolling faster than ever, as the financial pressures of under performance on the pitch push owners to take action. Since the start of the 2025-26 season, nine full-time managers of top-flight English clubs have been dismissed by their owners, averaging less than a year in the job, according to Financial Times analysis of Transfermarkt data. Managers who left this season lasted an average of 295 days in charge, the lowest tenure since the Premier League was launched 34 years ago. The previous record low was 415 days in 2008-09, excluding 1992-93 and 1995-96, when only one manager departed in each season. Alongside goals from corner kicks and the return of the long throw-in, managerial churn has been a feature of the season. Aside from Rosenior, Chelsea also sacked Maresca after 18 months in post, while Manchester United parted ways with Ruben Amorim after 14 months. Things have been even more brutal at the other end of the table. Nott...

  Cartoon copyright Private Eye Instability in leadership seems the fashion today.  We have had the greatest turnover of prime ministers in the democratic era.  An article in the Financial Times this week revealed an increase in changes in the CEOs of companies, in part driven by so-called 'active investors'. But football has some of the shortest tenures of all.  Since 2011 there have been 23 managers at Watford and 18 at Forest with Sean Dyche managing both teams. Forest are the first team since the league's formation in 1888 to have four permanent managers in one season, although Leyton Orient hold the all comers' record with five in 2016/17. Has it brought Watford or Forest success?

According to the League Managers Association, the body that represents managers in English football, the average tenure for its members across the top four leagues of the men’s game is 1.4 years. In the Championship, where the pressure is arguably greatest given the potential riches offered by promotion, it is just 0.8 years. The cliché is that ‘it’s a results business’.    But managers inherit a team they would not necessarily have recruited and need time to develop their way of playing.    Fans and owners rarely give it to them.    A replacement is recruited, often at considerable cost, and the whole cycle starts again. Ray Wann, a partner and head of employment at Sheridans law firm who has represented both sides in severance negotiations, says that, based on his experience, clubs that sack a manager towards the end of their contract are more likely to pay out the full amount. However, talks become tougher when a manager is fired with a long time lef...

Managerial turnover is a baked in feature of modern football.   Owners and fans are impatient for success and a few bad results can mean the sack, never mind the cost.  Very often the replacement doesn't do much better with the same set of players. A new trend is the sacking of relatively successful managers.  'Chopper' Harris saved Gillingham from the driop last season and they were only just outside the play offs when he got the heave ho.  The new owners decided they wanted 'a new dircetion' whatever that means. Now Wayne Rooney is to replace John Eustace at Birmingham City, agreeing a deal with a salary that is three times the amount Eustace was earning. Eustace, 43, impressed during his time at the club against a backdrop of financial uncertainty and ownership change. Birmingham are sixth in the Sky Bet Championship after 11 matches this season. However, a statement said he had been dismissed because the board wanted to implement a winning mentality and “c...

Short termism is a British disease, but it is particularly acute in football.   It is driven by an over active stock market, now reinforced by the activities of hedge funds and private equity companies.  Short termism is not the only reason the UK has a chronic productivity problem. but it is certainly part of the picture. I was struck by the following comment in the  Financial Times  yesterday about the success of Aldi and Lidl: 'Being private allows Aldi and Lidl to keep prying eyes at bay and not be held to ransom by shareholders if they do not meet their sales or profit forecasts.; The chief executive of Aldi for the UK and Ireland said 'this is an absolutely tremendous strength of our business.  It means we can make very long-term decisions even when the road is bumpy.' It's a different story in football these days at all levels, including non-;league.  The following edited extract from my book  Political Football  is relevant: 'Expectat...

An interesting attempt to rank managers in the Premier League.  One shouldn't take these things too seriously, but it looks good for Newcastle supporters and less good for Everton fans:  https://www.planetsport.com/soccer/news/2021-22-premier-league-of-managers-eddie-howe-frank-lampard-pep-guardiola For me the really interesting question is how much of a difference managers do make, an issue I discuss in my book Political Football.    My short answer is that there are a few really exceptiona lmanagerss that do make a real difference, but the impact of most of them is exaggerated.

Managerial turnover is a feature of modern football. It is always the manager who gets blamed for poor performances by owners and fans, rarely the players.  But although it is headlined 'This has to be a brutal year to be a manager' a Chris Dunlavy story in The Football League Paper actually suggests otherwise. There could still be one or two dismissals, but it's a bit late to make a change.   This season 35 managers have been dismissed in the English Football League, three below the 2015/16 peak of 38. What is remarkable is the consistency of the figures.   In general over a ten year period they hover around the mean of 30.   In the past four seasons they were never more than four away from this figure.   In other words, about 42 per cent of managers get sacked each season. What has changed this season is that the pandemic has led to new hires being offered shorter contracts, often as little as six months  or until the end of the season...

As expectations from fans and owners increase, it is well known that managerial turnover has increased.  However, it is useful to have some hard data on how much this differs across the top five leagues in Europe.  Managers at La Liga and Serie A clubs have the shortest tenures and Premier League managers survive a little longer:  https://www.soccerex.com/insight/articles/2020/the-lifespan-of-a-big-five-manager

Managerial turnover is a feature of modern football, given the finances at stake and the expectations of fans. Whether changing manager does more than give an initial boost is a matter for debate. It does work sometimes, but the incoming manager inherits a squad he would not necessarily have chosen. Who are the longest serving managers in the history of the Premier League? Sir Alex and Arsene Wenger are obvious answers, but the others may be more of a surprise: Longest managerial reigns