The Swiss Ramble is now able to calculate Premier League television distributions, although he emphasises that these are estimates.
As a reminder, in 2018/19 each club received equal shares for 50% of domestic TV ÂŁ34m, overseas TV ÂŁ43m and commercial income ÂŁ5m. Each match broadcast live was worth ÂŁ1.1m (on top of ÂŁ12.2m for a minimum of 10 games), while each league position was worth ÂŁ1.9m (merit payment).
However, the story has changed with the new 3-year deal for the 2019-22 cycle, as the numbers have moved and there is a twist in the distribution methodology used for the overseas TV rights. This is important, as overseas is the area driving the growth in TV money.
Total Premier League TV rights rose 8% (ÂŁ0.7 bln) from ÂŁ8.5 bln to ÂŁ9.2 bln. UK domestic rights actually dropped 7% (ÂŁ0.4 bln) from ÂŁ5.4 bln to ÂŁ5.0 bln, but this decrease was more than offset by overseas rights increasing by 34% (ÂŁ1.1 bln) from ÂŁ3.1 bln to ÂŁ4.2 bln.
As can be seen, the increase in PL overseas TV rights is particularly striking. These now average around ÂŁ1.4 bln a year, up from ÂŁ1.1 bln in the 2016-19 cycle, accounting for 45% of the total. As recently as 2007-10, these were only worth ÂŁ200m a year.
If we assume that the clubs have the same number of games broadcast live in 2019/20 as the previous season, we can estimate the impact of the new deal in 2019/20. Based on this assumption, Liverpool would receive a hefty ÂŁ175m, followed by Manchester City ÂŁ168m, Manchester United ÂŁ166m and Chelsea ÂŁ161m.
Thanks to the new TV deal, especially the steep increase in overseas rights, this means that most clubs would actually receive more money from Premier League in 2019/20, led by Leicester City ÂŁ24m, Manchester United ÂŁ22m and Liverpool ÂŁ22m. This is also linked to better finishing positions in the league.
The change in distribution for overseas revenue means that final league position is increasingly important. As Richard Scudamore put it, this is “a subtle change that further incentivises on-pitch achievement”, though it is also likely to further grow the gap to the Big Six.
Of course, at some stage the Premier League clubs will have to pay the reported ÂŁ330m rebate to the TV companies (domestic ÂŁ223m, overseas ÂŁ107m)., though only spread over future seasons. That works out to around 12% of the ÂŁ2.6 bn total anticipated payments.
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