Decision time is finally approaching over whether the iconic (and expanded) St James’ Park will remain Newcastle United’s ground, or whether they take the bold, contentious step of venturing away from their previously ever-present home. The considerations on either side are very complex.
“Early 2025” is when Newcastle state a resolution
will be reached for what Brad Miller, their chief commercial officer
(COO), describes as a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity. In Miller’s
words, staying or leaving is like comparing “apples and pears, not apples and
apples”, and the complexities involved explain why this process has already
taken 18 months. “We only want to write that cheque once,” he admitted.
The Athletic has spent weeks speaking to stakeholders,
insiders and those affected to outline just how complicated this decision is
and has learnt:
- Talks
have yet to commence officially between the club and key stakeholders
- There
are claims Newcastle cannot sell St James’ — should they wish to do so — because
the land is managed by the Freemen of Newcastle
- Newcastle’s
stadium must be ready “a minimum of six months” before it is due to host
its share of matches at the 2028 European Championship, affecting building
timescales
- Some
figures within the club doubt majority owner PIF will invest the required
funds, despite the hierarchy’s insistence it will
- Underground
tunnels from the city’s Metro rail system present a key, expensive
engineering challenge
- Leazes
Park is the most obvious alternative stadium site but it will be very
difficult to gain planning permission
Demand is massively outstripping supply. Thousands of supporters who left during Mike
Ashley’s 14-year ownership of the club simply cannot get back in. There is no
official season-ticket waiting list, partly because it would be so long, but a
conservative estimate of ‘memberships’ — offering fans the opportunity to enter
ballots for tickets — places them in the six-figure bracket (the club have
never confirmed the volume, beyond 50,000-plus being sold on day one of
availability in 2023).
Streaming of live matches is likely to increase in the future, along with the quality of the experience, but this does not compare with being in the stadium and savouring the great atmosphere.
The general infrastructure is also tired. St James’ has
grown in piecemeal fashion, on the same site, since Newcastle Rangers played
the first game there in 1880. Newcastle West End took up the lease and merged
with Newcastle East End to form Newcastle United in 1892.
Part of the reason why St James’ appears lopsided today is because of the different phases of development, and the surrounding physical barriers. Away fans are as far away from the pitch as anywhere in the Premier League.
The East Stand was built in 1972 as the ground’s largest
stand. It is now its smallest. The lower tiers of the Gallowgate End and
Milburn and Sir John Hall (now Leazes) Stands were redeveloped in 1995, taking
capacity to just over 36,000. Then in 2000, ‘Level 7’ was finished, adding a
68m (223ft) cantilever roof above the Milburn and Sir John Hall Stands to
provide unrestricted views and increase the all-seater capacity to its present
level.
Ultimately, however, this also comes down to income
generation. The Premier League’s
profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) have slowed Newcastle’s ability to
progress as a club in recent years, and increasing every potential revenue
stream is essential.
Newcastle have the seventh-largest capacity in England,
with Everton’s new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock (52,888), plans for
expansion at Leeds’ Elland Road (53,000) and proposals to redevelop Aston
Villa’s Villa Park (to 50,000-plus) meaning it will drop further down the list.
Interestingly, should Newcastle move, they are unlikely to
be able to gain financially in the same way Arsenal did by selling their old
stadium Highbury in 2006. St James’ is
part of the Town Moor, and managed by the Freemen of Newcastle (yet to be
officially approached). The land was set aside long ago for a recreational
sports ground and, while Newcastle own the structure, they cannot sell the plot
for commercial redevelopment without council and Freemen consent, plus a change
to the user clause in the lease, according to council sources and Skempton.
Any shift in the site’s footprint would likely require a
temporary move, and Newcastle do not have many viable alternative groundshares. Miller has already ruled out using the
67,000-capacity Murrayfield rugby stadium in Scottish capital Edinburgh (90
miles/150km to the north), and bitter local rivals Sunderland are
unlikely to allow Newcastle to play at their near-49,000-seat Stadium of Light,
around 10 miles to the south-east (politically too, this would be a difficult
sell). Middlesbrough’s Riverside Stadium, which has a capacity of just
under 35,000, is around 30 miles further south.
St James’ is among 10 host stadiums chosen for the 2028
European Championship being staged in the UK and Republic of Ireland, and will
be the venue for group matches, as a minimum — which complicates matters.
A new stadium is predicted to cost between £1billion and
£2bn, significantly more than the £500m to £1bn estimated for a widescale
redevelopment of St James’. While the current ground already has 52,256 seats
and a fresh site would require all those and more to be paid for, the latter
could, according to Miller, generate up to twice as much revenue.
The NUST does not have an official position yet, as it
awaits firm proposals. However, in a survey of its 11,500 members in May, 73
per cent said they preferred to stay, with 19 per cent preferring to move.
Wherever Newcastle’s future lies, there remains a long road
ahead.
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