Match day losses in the Premier League

How will barring fans from matches, probably until March, affect Premier League revenues?   The authoritative Swiss Ramble has some answers.

In 2018/19 Premier League clubs had around £700m of match day revenue with Manchester United leading the way with £111m, followed by Arsenal £96m, Liverpool £84m, Spurs £82m, Chelsea £676m and Manchester City £55m. At the other end of the spectrum, clubs like Burnley, West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield United had less than £10m.

Even though Arsenal matchday revenue was not the largest in the Premier League, it was by far the highest as a percentage of total revenue at 25%, much more than Spurs and Manchester United, both 18%. In fact, Arsenal are more reliant on this revenue stream than any other leading European club.

Based on the number of matches played in 2018/19, we can calculate the average revenue per match, ranging from Manchester United £4.3m to Burnley £0.3m.

If we assume that all matches are played behind closed doors until the end of the year, the Swiss Ramble estimates that Premier League clubs would lose a total of £288m. The largest losses would be Manchester United £47m, Spurs £36m, Liverpool £36m, Arsenal £35m, Chelsea £25m and Manchester City £24m.

Rather than an estimate based on eight home league games as above, it seems more realistic not to anticipate a return until mid-March. In that case, the total Premier League loss would increase to £451m. By club, the largest losses would be Manchester United £72m, Liverpool £55m, Arsenal £55m, Spurs £54m, Chelsea £37m and Manchester City £35m. If all games were played behind closed doors, the total loss would rise to £586m.

Timing is thus crucial. Taking Manchester United as an example, they would lose £47m if games are played behind closed doors until end year; £72m end-March; £94m whole season; £111m with progress in the cups.

In addition, clubs earn a fair amount from merchandising sales on match day, which would be reflected in commercial income, so there will be additional losses in that revenue stream, particularly at the elite clubs.

It is also possible that TV companies will push for rebates, as their “product” is devalued by the adverse impact from no spectators on the match day experience for armchair fans. This could be offset by televising more games, but this did not prevent a £330m rebate in 2019/20.

All that said, Premier League clubs still generate a huge amount of income even without match day revenue. As an example, if 100% of match day were lost in 2018/19, six clubs would still have earned more than £300m with Manchester United leading the way with £516m, down from £627m in total.