How much are Leeds worth?

Andrea Radrizzani, majority shareholder since 2017, is close to finalising a deal that will see 49ers Enterprises, the investment arm of the San Francisco 49ers, up its current stake and seize outright control at Leeds United. A new era beckons in every sense.

The takeover has been a long time coming, traced as far back as 2018 when Radrizzani invited the first of three tranches of investment from 49ers Enterprises. The fourth and final instalment, one which is currently pending, will be the most significant, passing control of Leeds into new hands and severing the last ties to Radrizzani.

At every stage, the valuation of Leeds has fluctuated. Low in the Championship, upped in the Premier League. Now, with a fall out of the Premier League confirmed, the price required to end Radrizzani’s hold on the club has dipped once more. The summer’s proposed deal, with the Italian’s remaining 56 per cent stake sold to 49ers Enterprises, has been brokered on the premise Leeds is now valued at £170million ($212million).

A far cry from 2017 when Radrizzani bought an underachieving club from Massimo Cellino for £45million, yet a sizeable fall from the £400million valuation that had been mooted in the event of Leeds dragging themselves to safety and a fourth season in the Premier League. The £640million tag attached by Forbes last year when ranking Leeds as the 19th most-valuable football club in the world — arguably more than they were genuinely worth but indicative of their appeal — has certainly blown away into the wind.

“Ultimately, how do you value a painting? How do you value a racehorse?” asks Kieran Maguire, leading academic and co-host of the Price of Football podcast. “It’s auction prices. You’re agreeing on a unique product.

“There is no appropriate valuation. Effectively you’ve got to view it on a trophy asset basis. How much does someone want to pay for the kudos of owning Leeds United?

“It doesn’t make money. Leeds have lost money in nine of the last 10 years. You can’t value Leeds or any club on a profitability basis. You could do a multiple of revenues but then you have to take into consideration how many years out of the next 10 do you expect Leeds United to be in the Premier League? No one can tell us that.”

Leeds, just as they were when 49ers Enterprises first arrived on the scene five years ago, are back to being a long-term bet. Heavy losses are almost inevitable next season as revenues tumble overnight, but returning to the Premier League before the parachute payments expire (2026 in Leeds’ case) would vindicate a full takeover.

Those close to 49ers Enterprises have largely judged the value of Leeds to be about three times the club’s annual turnover. Not an unusual outlook within the industry but a reminder that a club’s value is shaped by the division they call home.

“Look at their commercial income (£44million in 2021-22) and it’s the biggest outside of the big six and bigger than a lot of Premier League clubs when Leeds were still in the Championship,” says Maguire.

“You measure success in football with three things; resources, opportunities and decision-making. Leeds have got the resources with a big fan base and a relatively wealthy city with a middle class there."

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The Political Economy of Football V2

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