The growing gulf in Premier League quality

James Gheerbant had an interesting article in The Times yesterday about the growing gap in quality between the top six clubs and rest of the Premier League. The top six are the two Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool. They thus represent just three cities in the country. Birmingham does not have a club in the top flight, despite its claims to 'Second City' status. The Manchester clubs have done a lot for the city's global profile.

Gheerbant shows that the big six teams have had a win percentage of 73.6 per cent this season when facing clubs from the rest of the league. It was 64.9 per cent in 2014-15.

There is an even starker contrast in terms of goal difference. In 2014-15 the average scoreline in a match between a big six team and a team from outside the big six was 1.86-0.93. This season it is 2.43-0.71. In just two seasons, the average goal difference in a match between a big team and a smaller team has more than doubled, from 0.75 to 1.72.

In terms of shots on goal the discrepancy this season is 18.3 to 7.6. Now, like many fans, I am a bit sceptical about what shots on goal statistics mean as they can count a wayward shot from distance that misses the goal all together and ends up in Row Z.

However, if we look at the better indicator of shots on target, the gap is a wide one: 6.6 to 2.4. A good measure of the competitiveness of a match has risen from 2.2 to 4.2 in just two seasons.

Possession statistics tell a similar, if less dramatic, story. In 2013/14 the average possession share in a match between a big six team and a non-big six team was 58.3-41.7. This season so far it is 64.8-35.2.

There is no doubt that teams outside the top six are playing more defensively against top six teams. Their objective often seems to be to keep the margin of defeat down to a respectable level.

Underlying these tactics, and also the use of re-tread managers, is the fear of the financial consequences of relegation. Not only are these considerable, but getting back out of the Championship requires spending a lot of money - and there are usually a number of other teams ready to spend big money as well.

Gheerbant thinks that these trends damage the reputation of the Premier League as a league where any team can beat any other, or at least have a good go at doing so. In other words, once again the financial success of the Premier League threatens to destroy the very thing makes it attractive to viewers around the world.

So much for the diagnosis, but what about the solution? The distribution of the Premier League's own funds is relatively egalitarian, too much so for the taste of top clubs who claim that they are generating the overseas television revenues. The real difference comes in the level of global sponsorship that the top clubs are able to attract.

There are no clear candidate clubs to join the top six. Everton would see themselves as such a club and were regarded as such when the Premier League was formed. However, they need the boost of a new stadium and that is going to take some years to arrive. Even if they did become more successful, they would not improve the geographical spread of clubs (although that probably doesn't matter much to viewers in Asia).

The sheer energy of the support for Newcastle United might qualify them in principle, but they have suffered from poor ownership and their recent match against Manchester City was an exemplar of defensive tactics.

Without being too Marxist about it, the Premier League is caught up in its own contradictions.

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The Political Economy of Football V2

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