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Cardiff face challenges following return to Championship

Fortunately, the Swiss Ramble has agreed to continue his in depth analyses of football club accounts during the current emergency. Cardiff City are the latest club to be the subject of his forensic analysis. The financial results for 2018/19 covered a season in the Premier League following promotion, but their stay in the top flight was brief, as it culminated in relegation to the Championship after they finished in 18th place.

The Bluebirds swung from a £39m loss before tax in the Championship to £3m profit, thanks to revenue surging £90m from £35m to £125m, though competing in the Premier League increased expenses by £31m. Still reported £0.8m loss after tax, due to £3m tax charge.

The £3m profit was not huge, though would have been £22m if £19.5m Sala provision excluded. In any case, this is still better than seven of the 13 Premier League clubs that have reported to date in 2018/19, as they have all made losses.

Since Vincent Tan bought Cardiff City in May 2010, the club has accumulated £130m of losses, averaging £14m a season. Last season was only the second time they made a (small) profit in this period, though better than £12m loss in their last season in the Premier League in 2014.

The main driver of Cardiff City's £90m revenue increase was broadcasting, up £85m to £107m due to significantly more lucrative Premier League TV deal, though match day also grew £3m (63%) to £7.9m, while commercial was up £1.9m (22%) to £10.4m. Profit on player sales flat at £2.2m. This is the lowest profit from this activity reported in the 2018/19 Premier League to date, miles below the likes of Chelsea £60m, Leicester City £58m and Liverpool £45m.

Cardiff have made very little money from player sales, only £22m in total in the last decade, almost half or which (£10m) came in a single year (2015). This season should be better after the sales of Booby Reid to Fulham, Kenneth Zohore to WBA and Bruno Manga to Dijon.

The club spent £38m on players, including Sala, Murphy, Reid, Cunningham, Smithies and Bacuna. This is around the same as the previous four years combined (£43m) and second highest in the club’s history, but was the second lowest in the Premier League, only above Watford. That said, the £24m average annual net spend over the last two years was a reversal of the preceding three seasons, which averaged annual net sales of £4m. Since the accounts were published, the club has spent £23m on acquiring players.

An amazing 85% of the club's revenue came from broadcasting, though to be fair this is far from unusual in the top flight. In fact, 13 of the clubs in the Premier League earn more than 70% of their total income from TV. TV income will significantly fall in 2019/20, though will be cushioned by a £43m parachute payment, which is much higher than £4.6m solidarity payment that most Championship clubs receive. Cardiff will only get two years of parachutes, as they were relegated in their first Premier League season.

Despite the significant growth, the £125m revenue is by far the lowest reported to date in the 2018/19 Premier League (though Burnley, Bournemouth and Huddersfield are still to publish). For some perspective, around a fifth of Manchester United’s £627m. It will dramatically fall in 2019/20 to around £63m, despite the parachute payment.

Commercial income rose 22% (£1.9m) from £8.5m to £10.4m, 'leveraging the benefits associated with increased exposure and global profile of the Premier League'. However, still one of the lowest in the division. In comparison, Big Six earned between £275m and £111m.

Match day income rose by £3.0m (63%) to £7.9m, even though they staged seven fewer home games, as average attendance increased by 56% from 20,164 to 31,409. Nevertheless, this revenue was still one of the lowest in the Premier League, though is club’s highest since 2014. Attendances have risen three years in a row from 16,427 in 2016 to 31,409 in 2019, though the number is very dependent on whether they are participating in the Premier League or Championship.

Wages only rose £5m (11%) to £54m, though prior year was inflated by hefty promotion bonuses. The modest increase meant that the wage bill was about the same level as when Cardiff were last in the Premier League in 2014. The wages to turnover ratio dropped (improved) from 139% to 43%, which is one of the lowest in the Premier League. The £54m wage bill was by far the lowest in the Premier League, so it is unsurprising that they struggled. To give some perspective, it was £9m below Huddersfield’s 2017/18 wages. Will fall in Championship following departure of some high earners and relegation clauses.

Gross debt rose by £7m from £74m to £81m, split between £40m owed to owner Vincent Tan (£32m repaid in 2019) and £41m other loans (up £39m). Debt would be much higher without Tan converting £95m into capital and writing-off £23m in the last decade. Tan and his friends have put a huge amount of money into Cardiff City, around £173m (£159m loans & £15m new share capital). This has funded £96m of player purchases (net) and £24m of infrastructure investment, while covering £58m of operating losses.

Accounts note Tan 'will continue to support the club in the foreseeable future' but adds 'long-term funding is not guaranteed'. However, he has sold half his stake in MLS club Los Angeles FC (for $70m) and is set to sell the rest, apparently so he can concentrate on the Bluebirds.

Unfortunately, the 2018/19 season will also be remembered for the tragic death of striker Emiliano Sala in a plane crash following his transfer from French club Nantes. The club are disputing the payment of a transfer fee, but have 'prudently' booked a £19.5m provision.

Executive chairman Mehmet Dalman summarised the club’s current position, 'We will undoubtedly face challenges following our return to the Championship in balancing the change in our revenue, albeit softened by the receipt of parachute payments.'

Diolch i Swistir y Swistir am ei ddadansoddiad.

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