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What will happen to City over alleged rules breach?

Hanging over the brilliant success of Pep Guardiola’s side are the 115 charges issued by the Premier League in February 2023. The breadth of the alleged breaches of financial rules are like nothing seen before in English football and, if proven, promise to taint the empire built during the years of Sheikh Mansour’s ownership.

City strenuously deny the alleged financial charges that spanned nine seasons of growth but must wait to clear their name in front of an independent commission expected to hear the complex case later this year. There are still no guarantees that a final judgment will come before the end of the 2024-25 season.

City were alleged to have funnelled money into the club via inflated sponsorship deals with UAE-based companies, as well as hiding some costs by keeping salaries and image-rights payments off the books.

UEFA did not need nearly as long in their own investigation when banning City from its competitions for two years and issuing a fine of €30m (£26m) in February 2020 for breaking Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules, but a challenge to that ruling with the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) later saw the suspension lifted and the financial penalty reduced to €10m.

City are sparing no expense. Their defence is being led by David Pannick, the highly regarded — and highly paid — KC of Blackstone Chambers.

Perhaps it is the sheer weight of charges that implies some level of guilt but this is a club that vehemently denies any wrongdoing in a defence unmoved since the spotlight was first shone on their conduct. The bullish belief is that all charges against them will be dismissed. “We look forward to this matter being put to rest once and for all,” they said in February 2023.

There has long been a theory that this case will not reach a hearing and that, after much back and forth, the Premier League and Manchester City will reach a settlement agreement to draw a line in the sand. That compromise would likely come in the form of retrospective fines, sparing City the danger of much worse and also allowing them to avoid a formal admission of guilt.

A settlement could also avoid wider political issues. The UK government has admitted to The Athletic that its embassy in Abu Dhabi and the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in London have discussed the charges levelled at Manchester City by the Premier League, but are refusing to disclose the correspondence because it could risk the UK’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

That, of course, has been under the present Government and a future Government may be less well disposed to help City out.   However, there are deep structural forces at work in the UK’s relations with the powerful  petro states.   The geopolitical realities have changed.

Any decision reached by a three-person commission would be subject to appeal but the almost limitless scope of its disciplinary powers leaves all outcomes on the table. The potential punishments are outlined in rule W.51 of the Premier League’s handbook and range from fines to points deductions — and even expulsion from the Premier League.

There are probably four outcomes; they’re acquitted, there’s a huge fine and small points deduction, there’s a huge points deduction or they’re kicked out of the league. But we just don’t know without seeing the in-depth evidence. And just because someone has been charged 115 times, it doesn’t mean they’re guilty.

In tactical terms, and the time involved, the Premier League might have been advised to focus on a smaller number of key charges.   Throwing the book at City was hardly likely to intimidate them.

 

 

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