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Newcastle takeover scenarios

Murhad Ahmed, sports correspondent of the Financial Times, reckons that the situation regarding the Saudi-backed takeover of Newcastle United is complicated.  On the one hand, the evidence of piracy from the World Trade Organisation looks compelling.  On the other hand, blocking a takeover would damage the key economic relationship between the UK and the desert kingdom.

He thinks that one possibility is that Realpolitik wins out and the takeover is approved.  Some kind of loophole is find to get the Saudi sovereign wealth fund through the owners' and directors' test.  My view is that would involve quite considerable reputational damage for the Premier League.

Second, the Premier League gives advance warning that the test may be failed and the deal is withdrawn to save face.  I would rate this as more likely.

Third, the deal is restructured with, for example, less direct involvement for the Saudi public investment fund or assurances on measures to tackle piracy.   I think this is the most likely outcome, but there are other possibilities.


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