What future for football in the pandemic?

Scottish football below the Championship has been suspended for three weeks following talks between the football authorities and the Scottish Government: https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12184974/lower-leagues-in-scotland-suspended-for-three-weeks 

Of itself this is not a major decision given that a large part of the non-league system south of the border is suspended and increasingly unlikely to be completed.  Attendances in the two lower divisions of the Scottish league system are generally on a par with the non-league system in England below 'elite' level.  The Scottish Government always likes to show that it is tougher and quicker than Westminster in imposing restrictions designed to suppress Covid-19.

If the English Premier League was suspended, the financial consequences would be far reaching.  One school of thought, represented by Steve Bruce at Newcastle, is that it is 'morally, it's probably wrong' for football to continue. This plays into the thinking of the many people who dislike football or think that the Premier League in particular represents 'greed'.  As Kieran Maguire points out in a forthcoming article, a higher moral bar is often applied to football than other parts of the economy or society.

The other school of thought, which is my view, is that if many of us are justifiably going to be restricted in our movements, streamed or televised football provides some light relief and distraction in what is little short of house arrest (particularly given that gardening is not an attractive option in January weather).  In practical terms, one constraint on congested fixtures is the need to finish ahead of the rescheduled Euro tournament in June.

Each month without fans costs English football in aggregate £100m in lost ticket sales.   This is more serious for League 1 and 2 clubs where match day accounts for a higher proportion of revenue, in the region of 30 to 40 per cent (some lower league accounts are presented in a shortened form that does not permit more precise analysis).

Suspending or cancelling the season would lead to further substantial rebates to broadcasters, typically the most important source of revenue for most top flight clubs.   They clawed back £330m when fixtures were suspended in March 2020.  Commercial revenues are also being hit at all levels if only because some sponsors have seen their own cash flow hit.   The club that has an outstanding record of securing commercial sponsorship, Manchester United, have said that some sponsors are already staggering payments.

With the Premier League's substantial revenues the Government has ruled that top clubs must solve their own financial problems, although this has not stopped Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur taking out Bank of England loans (just a reminder that it is an independent institution, albeit with close links with government).  Many commercial lenders are cautious about advancing funds or at least charge high interest rates.

No doubt some inside and outside football would like to see top clubs in difficulty and wages and transfer fees reduced (which is likely to happen).   However, which clubs got in trouble would largely depend on whether they had benefactor owners with deep pockets.

What is the way forward?   I don't want to join the ranks of amateur epidemiologists, although I have done some work in that area which has been published in Transactions of the Royal Society.  Fortunately, my political diseases model has sunk without trace!

There does need to be increased stringency at clubs.   There is now more testing, even in the EFL.  Stricter rules have been imposed on wearing masks (at closed door games some at pitch side seem to be wearing masks and others don't).     The Premier League has insisted that clubs use a minimum of three buses rather than two to travel to matches.  (This could end up with each player being chauffeur driven!)  Referees and club captains have been asked to cut down on the amount of physical contact between players such as embracing after a goal.   All this is sensible enough, but critics could see it as token moves.

In any case, the more stringent the checks, the more games will be postponed.   Leagues below Championship level may have to finish on a points per game basis.   This will lead to complaints of unfairness, as will the way in which fixture congestion differentially affects clubs in the top two leagues.   However, it's either that or suspend the season.