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Foxes are Premiership over achievers

Research shows that the best predictor of a club's success is the amount paid out in wages.  But, of course, it is not a perfect relationship and some clubs manage to punch above their weight.

Leicester City are the biggest over achievers in the Premier League, followed by West Ham United and then Manchester City.   Aston Villa come in fourth.

The positive points differential above expected points based on wages is 12 for Leicester City, 10 for West Ham and nine for Manchester City.

Manchester City's wage bill was £351m for 2019/20 more than double that paid by Leicester.   Liverpool had the second highest wage bill at £326m.

Sheffield United, Liverpool and then Arsenal were the biggest under achievers.   For the Blades the gap was 20 points, 10 for Liverpool and nine for Arsenal.  Crystal Palace were next in line on eight.  It should be noted that Liverpool were the highest over achievers when they won the Premier League last year.

Tottenham Hotspur are the only club who have performed exactly as they should have done according to their wage bill.

Football finance guru Kieran Maguire emphasised that there were factors at work other than wages: 'Leicester and Manchester City fly under the radar in terms of their use of data analysis.  When Leicester signed N'Golo Kante his stats were superb, yet they could still buy him for a modest fee.   Manchester City have now recruited an astrophysicist to work in their data analytics.  Clubs have to be spending smarter, not just spending higher.#

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