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Partial sale most likely outcome at Liverpool

The authoritative Swiss Ramble takes a 'deep dive' into why Liverpool might be for sale - or not: https://swissramble.substack.com/p/liverpool-up-for-sale

Liverpool owner John W Henry has explained FSG’s position, “I know there has been a lot of conversation and quotes about LFC, but I keep to the facts: we merely formalised an ongoing process. Will we be in England forever? No. Are we selling LFC? No. Are talking with investors about LFC? Yes.”

He added, “Will something happen there? I believe so, but it won't be a sale. Have we sold anything in the past 20+ years?”

The sale of Chelsea set a new benchmark for a “Big Six” Premier League club, so may well have acted as a catalyst to at least consider a sale, especially as FSG would (rightly) expect to achieve a higher price than Chelsea, given their advantages over the Blues in terms of history, brand and financial position.

As more Premier League clubs are bought by mega wealthy investors, FSG might conclude that their pockets are not deep enough to keep up.  FSG have only put in £136m since their arrival in the form of loans to help fund stadium expansion. Indeed, since 2017 the club has repaid £37m of these loans.

This is in stark contrast to the owners at Manchester City and Chelsea, who put in £861m and £585m respectively, which has undoubtedly helped propel their successes during this period.

Liverpool’s owners would almost certainly have to invest a lot more in the squad in order to compete at the highest levels, so FSG might prefer to leave this to someone else.

Many Liverpool fans are likely to see FSG’s record as rather mixed and probably feel that the Americans they have taken the club as far as they can.  To their credit, the Reds have won more than their fair share of trophies under their ownership.

However, FSG’s reign has not been blemish-free, as they have made a few high-profile errors, including the deeply unpopular attempt to raise ticket prices, trying to trademark the word “Liverpool”, furloughing staff during the pandemic and most embarrassingly being part of the misguided attempt to form a European Super League.

It is unclear exactly how much would be enough to persuade FSG to sell Liverpool. The Mail on Sunday said that its sources had told them that the owners would accept £2.7bln, while a much higher price of £3.4bln ($4bln) was shared with the Liverpool Echo.  It would appear that a decent valuation for Liverpool would be in the range of £3bln to £4bln, though this even this wide range is very sensitive to the assumptions made.

However, as communicated by Henry, it appears increasingly likely that FSG will only sell a minority stake in Liverpool, as opposed to going for a full takeover. This approach would provide them with funds for player recruitment or further infrastructure investments, while still allowing them to retain control of a valuable asset.

Unless there is a complete turnaround, it does look as FSG will be around for a while longer.

 


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