How credible is Jahm Najafi’s reported intention to bid for Tottenham Hotspur. His group MSP were interested in purchasing a minority stake in fellow Premier League side Everton.
Talks about acquiring a minority stake in Everton have
continued since then. Buying Tottenham for £3.11bn would be an altogether
different level of financial commitment, so much would depend on the funding of
the other partners in Najafi’s consortium.
An MSP deal for Spurs would be a blow to Everton and in
particular owner Farhad Moshiri’s hopes of bringing additional capital into the
club.
The expectation according to multiple sources is that Spurs would
want far more than the £3.11bn reported as Najafi’s planned offer.
Clubs are often valued in terms of the sale price as a
multiple of the revenue. And while European clubs have traditionally been sold
for three to five times their revenue, Premier League owners are well aware of
the fact that in the US, teams often go for eight, 10 or even 12 times their
revenue.
So hypothetically, if Spurs were to be sold for $3.75bn
(£3.11bn) that would represent almost exactly seven times their 2021-22
revenue. But Tottenham are likely to value the club at far more than that. At
least eight times the club’s revenue (£3.5bn), more likely nine (£4bn) or even
ten times (£4.4bn).
On top of that, Spurs’ revenues for the 2022-23 season are
likely to be significantly higher thanks to the club’s return to the Champions
League and the growing number of non-football events held at the stadium. They
might even hit £500m. (The Beyonce concerts alone are set to rake in millions
of pounds for the club.) So by this equation, the asking price for the club
would likely be even higher, and further away from £3.11bn.
There is a view that the Chelsea sale effectively reset the
market for what a top club should be sold for. And that, while Chelsea have an
old ground with an expensive stadium renovation project ahead of them,
Tottenham opened their new stadium in 2019 and it is already bringing in far
more in matchday and event revenue.
With that in mind, the expectation is that Tottenham would
command a higher sale price than Chelsea did last year, despite the club’s
relative lack of success on the pitch.
It remains to be seen when Najafi will make an official
approach to Tottenham, but the indications are that his move is unlikely to
succeed, certainly at the reported figures. And even if ENIC do decide to sell
to Najafi’s consortium, that does not necessarily mean that Levy would leave
the club.
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