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FA replays decision attracts lower league opposition

The decision to scrap replays in the FA Cup has attracted widespread criticism, not least from fans, and it is difficult to see why it is necessary in the first or second rounds.   However, revenue and morale boosts for lower league clubs are not systematic and depend, literally, on the luck of the draw.

When I was growing up winning the FA Cup was in some ways a bigger deal than winning the league, but that is no longer the case and sentiment clashes with the reality of modern football business.  Some fans hope that a regulator will be able to intervene in decisions like these in the future.

Nigel Clough appreciates more than most how integral they can be.  In the winter of the 2005-06 season, he was seven-and-a-half years into a decade as manager of Burton Albion when the then non-League club landed a third-round tie at home to Manchester United.

That game finished goalless, earning Burton — who had moved into their new Pirelli Stadium a year earlier — a replay at Old Trafford which made them at least £800,000 in shared gate receipts and TV payments.

“The money we earned from the replay gave us a foundation to build on,” says Clough, who this week led Mansfield Town to promotion from League Two. “The bottom line is it paid off the stadium, which had been a huge undertaking, as these things always tend to go over budget. Being able to settle all our bills thanks to the replay gave the club the platform to achieve what it did over the next few years.” (Burton were promoted to the EFL in 2009, and got to the second-tier Championship seven years later.)

Exeter City are another club who are indebted to the FA Cup and replays. In 2004-05, they were in non-League and saddled with £4.5million worth of debt. Then came their FA Cup third-round trip to Manchester United. Fifth-tier Exeter held United 0-0 at Old Trafford to earn a replay back at St James Park, which they lost 2-0. But the real result of the two matches was that they earned around £800,000 in revenue, a windfall which changed the outlook of the fan-owned club, as they were back in the EFL by 2008.

Historically, the narrative arc of a ‘good FA Cup campaign’ for a smaller team was to battle through to the third round and land a glamorous name at home. Even better — especially in an era where club finances in football’s lower reaches are at breaking point — was for that initial tie to end in a draw, requiring a financially advantageous replay.

But the numbers show that in the past 10 seasons, that particular scenario has happened only 12 times and not since February 2020, when Shrewsbury Town of League One lost 1-0 at Anfield in a replay Klopp did not even attend — Liverpool’s then under-23s coach Neil Critchley took the team instead.

The numerical truth is that the vast majority of FA Cup replays are not the sort of David Travels To Goliath situation we saw when 6,000 Exeter fans went to Anfield in 2016.

If true cup memories are built on knocking out the big boys, then these numbers are telling: since 2015, there have been 22 instances of a club from League One or below knocking out a Premier League side. Fifteen of those have come with the lower-division team playing at home (two of them in replays). Statistically, a minnow’s best chance of winning is in the initial game, particularly if it’s at their place.

It is entirely understandable that these changes to the FA Cup have sparked dismay, but meaningful structural change is arguably a better ambition than hoping for the (very) occasional infusion of cash from a replay at a Premier League ground.

 

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