After Derby County published their financial results for the 2023/24 season, many observers expressed surprise at the amount of money the Rams had lost while securing promotion from League One to the Championship.
The bottom line of promoted clubs is adversely impacted by
the payment of promotion bonuses, which can be quite substantial, so there is
clearly a cost to be paid for teams that go up.
As you would expect, the cost of promotion increases the
higher the division, so in 2022/23 (the last season where all clubs have
published accounts) the average pre-tax loss in the Championship was £27.9m,
compared to £9.6m in League One and £1.4m in League Two.
Championship to
Premier League
Five clubs have reached the Premier League in the last
decade despite generating less than £20m: Luton Town (2022/23) £18m, Watford
(2014/15) £18m, Huddersfield Town (2016/17) £16m, Brentford (2021/21) £15m and
Bournemouth (2014/15) £13m.
Parachute payments give clubs relegated from the Premier
League a major advantage. In 2023/24, this award was worth £48m in the first
year after relegation, £39m in year two and £18m in year three.
Moreover, this has become an increasingly important factor.
In the five years up to 2018/19, seven of the 15 promoted clubs received
parachute payments, i.e. 47%. This was up to 10 in the last five years, which
works out to 67%.
The three highest wages for clubs promoted from the
Championship are Fulham (2021/22) £90m, Aston Villa (2018/19) £83m and
Newcastle United (2016/17) £80m, while Leeds United’s £78m in 2019/20 is the
most paid by a non-parachute club.
League One to the
Championship
The average revenue of clubs promoted from League One to the
Championship has significantly increased in the last three seasons, partly
because those going up included some traditional big clubs.
In this way, the average revenue in the three years up to
2023/24 was £17.6m, which was more than twice as much as the £8.0m in the
preceding 7-year period, partly due to COVID adversely impacting 2019/20 and
2020/21. The highest revenue was
Sunderland’s £26.1m in 2021/22, followed by Ipswich Town (2022/23) £21.8m,
Derby County (2023/24) £19.m and Sheffield Wednesday (2022/23) £19.3m.
In contrast, four clubs won promotion on less than £6m
revenue, namely Burton Albion (2015/16) £4.2m, Coventry City (2019/20) £5.1m,
Milton Keynes Dons (2014/15) £5.2m and Blackpool (2020/21) £5.4m.
There has also been substantial growth in the wages of the
League One promoted clubs, which averaged £16.3m in the last three seasons,
compared to £8.7m in the previous seven years.
Derby had the third highest loss before tax ever for clubs
promoted from League One, only surpassed by Ipswich Town (2022/23) £18.2m and
Blackburn Rovers (2017/18) £16.8m. Two more clubs had double digit losses while
securing promotion, namely Bristol City (2014/15) and Charlton Athletic
(2018/19) with £10.1m apiece.
The average revenue of clubs promoted from League Two has
remained in a fairly narrow range over the last eight seasons, averaging £5.4m
in this time.
Gains and losses from
promotion
All but four of the 24 clubs promoted from the Championship
between 2014/15 and 2021/22 have seen an improvement in their bottom line,
though it should be noted that every club whose finances have deteriorated was
promoted in the last four seasons.
Some clubs did much better after promotion with five clubs
improving their bottom line by more than £50m, led by Wolves (2017/18) £77m,
who swung from a £57m loss to a £20m profit, Newcastle United (2016/17) £70m
and Hull City (2015/16) £56m.
In contrast, four clubs lost more in the Premier League than
their promotion season in the Championship, namely Fulham (2019/20) £45m,
Norwich City (2020/21) £45m, Aston Villa (2018/19) £31m and Nottingham Forest
(2021/22) £21m.
Of the 23 clubs promoted from League One to the Championship
in our review, 16 clubs improved their bottom line. However, the financial
results at seven clubs deteriorated, including two from the most recent
promotion in 2021/22.
Five clubs improved their financials by more than £5m with
Barnsley (2015/16) leading the way with £13.4m, mainly due to £13.5m profit
from player sales, followed by Charlton Athletic (2018/19) £8.9m and Wigan
Athletic (2015/16) £6.6m. However, Wigan
(2021/22) also had the largest decline with £5.7m, followed by Bristol City
(2014/15) £4.8m and Milton Keynes Dons (2014/15) £3.9m.
Of the 30 clubs promoted from League Two to League One in
our analysis (where accounts were available), 17 clubs improved their bottom
line, while the financial performance at 13 clubs deteriorated, so this was not
far off 50:50.
The largest improvements following promotion were made by
Oxford United (2015/16) and Coventry City (2017/18) with £2.5m apiece, while
the biggest increases in reported losses were at Port Vale (2021/22) and Bolton
Wanderers (2020/21), both with £2.3m.
Losses of promoted clubs in League Two and especially League
One have been steadily increasing. This was also the case in the Championship -
with the exception of 2022/23. This was mainly because the three clubs that
went up from England’s second tier that season are all fairly cost conscious.
The majority of promoted clubs see better financials in the
following season in the higher division, but this is far from guaranteed.
Year-on-year improvement becomes less likely the lower down the football
pyramid we go, i.e. almost all clubs promoted from the Championship do better, but
this is the case for only around half of the clubs promoted from League Two.
What this means is that any investors that hope to make a
quick buck by investing in a lower league club, then guiding it to promotion,
need to appreciate that they will almost certainly have to cover operating
losses on top of the initial cost of acquisition. In short, the cost of going up is, er, going
up.
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