The dominance of the Big Six is not over (even Spurs)

The term ‘Big Six’ came to prominence at the start of the 2010s, replacing the old ‘Big Four’ — germinating as City began to win league titles and Tottenham forced themselves into the Champions League. It is a reign that has lasted 15 years, but the ‘Big Six’ now lie scattered.

But be careful about a rush to judgment. This is also about financial capacity and resilience as well as good management.

The gloom hanging over United and Spurs means this season is an extreme example, but the waning on-pitch prowess of these clubs as a collective is not exactly new — Aston Villa manager Unai Emery declared it dead in April 2023.

“Now it is not a top six but a top seven, top eight or top 10,” the Spaniard said soon after his arrival in the West Midlands. “There are a lot of teams capable of targeting those positions and I want to add Aston Villa into it, too.” He was right — Villa finished fourth a year later.

The ‘Big Six’ have ended the season as the top six just once in the past five seasons, with Villa, Newcastle, West Ham United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Leicester City all crashing the party at various points. If Forest hold onto their current position, this will be the third consecutive season that interlopers have finished in the top four, never mind the top six.

The ‘Big Six’ is about more than league positions — they are big because of the corporate behemoths they have become. These are clubs who can now afford for everything to go wrong and recover to compete for Europe again within a season.

Over the past 10 years, the average revenue of the chasing pack has doubled from €165.1million to €334.7m. Whereas in the 2016 results that figure was 40 per cent of the average revenue of the 'Big Six', their share has only slightly increased to 47.8 per cent this year. Hardly a meaningful jump.

In absolute terms, the gap between the 'Big Six' and the chasing pack is widening — the top six’s current average revenue of €700million per season is over €360m more than the chasing pack. The separation was €250m a decade ago.

For a 'Big Six' club to drop towards the chasing pack, they must miss out on Champions League football for several successive seasons, harming their revenue by losing out on lucrative UEFA broadcasting money.

for the 'Big Six' to truly change, it requires a perfect storm — for one of them to miss out on the Champions League for at least three seasons, and for one of the chasing pack to make that competition in successive seasons themselves. This is a challenge — no disruptor clubs have qualified for the Champions League in successive seasons in over 20 years.

Even if Tottenham miss out on the Champions League for next season and several more afterwards, it will be their ability to monetise past success through commercial deals that may keep them in the 'Big Six'. Some fans think that investment in the stadium has affected investment in the team.

For example, Spurs made €297million in commercial revenue for 2023-24 to Newcastle’s €95m, buttressed by their new stadium and powerful brand. That commercial revenue, unlike broadcast revenue, is less reliant on Champions League qualification — of course the prestige has an impact, but the Londoners’ commercial revenue still grew from €261m the season before, despite the lack of elite European football.

The absence of silverware is highly frustrating for Spurs fans. New ownership could boost a recovery.

Threat of financial calamity removed from Baggies

West Bromwich Albion had effectively been in decline ever since the club was sold to a Chinese consortium in August 2016, paying a figure north of £200m to buy former owner Jeremy Peace’s stake. Controlling shareholder Guochuan Lai’s ownership was fairly disastrous for the club, but his unloved tenure finally came to an end after Bilkul Football WBA, a company ultimately owned by Florida-based entrepreneur Shilen Patel and his father Dr Kiran Patel, acquired an 87.8% shareholding in West Bromwich Albion Group Limited, the parent company of West Bromwich Albion Football Club. This change in ownership was urgently required, due to the numerous financial problems facing West Brom, including growing high-interest debt and serious cash flow concerns, following years of no investment from the former owner. Indeed, West Brom’s auditors had already rung the alarm bell in the 2021/22 accounts when they cast doubt on the club’s ability to continue as a going concern without making player s...

Spurs to sell minority stake

Tottenham Hotspur is in talks to sell a minority stake in a deal that could value it at up to £3.75 billion and pave the way for Joe Lewis and his family to sever ties with the Premier League football club. Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy is seeking an investment that values the club at between £3.5 billion and £3.75 billion, including debt. While the terms of any deal have not been finalised, City sources expect Spurs to sell about 10 per cent. The club is being advised by bankers from Rothschild on the sale. Tottenham wants to raise fresh capital for new player signings and to help fund the development of an academy for its women’s team, as well as a 30-storey hotel next to its north London stadium. The financier Amanda Staveley, who brokered the deal for Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund to take over Newcastle United, is understood to be among the parties to have expressed an interest in Tottenham. Staveley’s fund, PCP Capital Partners, has raised about £500 million to ...

Millwall punch above their weight

Millwall’s season was overshadowed by the tragic death of owner John Berylson following a car accident. The American had been an exemplary owner, beloved by the fans for his leadership, passion and generosity. Millwall’s finances had been pretty good during his tenure, which we shall explore by looking at the most recent accounts from the 2022/23 season, when the club narrowly missed out on a place in the play-offs after finishing 8th. Millwall’s pre-tax loss slightly reduced from £12.6m to £12.2m, as revenue rose £0.8m (4%) from £18.6m to a club record £19.4m and player sales improved from a £0.1m loss to £2.5m profit. However, other operating income dropped from by £1.1m from £1.3m to £0.2m, while operating expenses increased £1.7m (5%) from £31.6m to £33.3m. The main driver of the revenue increase was broadcasting, which rose £1.1m (12%) from £9.1m to £10.2m, though match day was also up £0.4m (7%) from £5.8m to £6.2m. In contrast, commercial fell £0.7m (19%) from £3.7m to £3....

The Political Economy of Football V2

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