The dominance of the Big Six is not over (even Spurs)

The term ‘Big Six’ came to prominence at the start of the 2010s, replacing the old ‘Big Four’ — germinating as City began to win league titles and Tottenham forced themselves into the Champions League. It is a reign that has lasted 15 years, but the ‘Big Six’ now lie scattered.

But be careful about a rush to judgment. This is also about financial capacity and resilience as well as good management.

The gloom hanging over United and Spurs means this season is an extreme example, but the waning on-pitch prowess of these clubs as a collective is not exactly new — Aston Villa manager Unai Emery declared it dead in April 2023.

“Now it is not a top six but a top seven, top eight or top 10,” the Spaniard said soon after his arrival in the West Midlands. “There are a lot of teams capable of targeting those positions and I want to add Aston Villa into it, too.” He was right — Villa finished fourth a year later.

The ‘Big Six’ have ended the season as the top six just once in the past five seasons, with Villa, Newcastle, West Ham United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Leicester City all crashing the party at various points. If Forest hold onto their current position, this will be the third consecutive season that interlopers have finished in the top four, never mind the top six.

The ‘Big Six’ is about more than league positions — they are big because of the corporate behemoths they have become. These are clubs who can now afford for everything to go wrong and recover to compete for Europe again within a season.

Over the past 10 years, the average revenue of the chasing pack has doubled from €165.1million to €334.7m. Whereas in the 2016 results that figure was 40 per cent of the average revenue of the 'Big Six', their share has only slightly increased to 47.8 per cent this year. Hardly a meaningful jump.

In absolute terms, the gap between the 'Big Six' and the chasing pack is widening — the top six’s current average revenue of €700million per season is over €360m more than the chasing pack. The separation was €250m a decade ago.

For a 'Big Six' club to drop towards the chasing pack, they must miss out on Champions League football for several successive seasons, harming their revenue by losing out on lucrative UEFA broadcasting money.

for the 'Big Six' to truly change, it requires a perfect storm — for one of them to miss out on the Champions League for at least three seasons, and for one of the chasing pack to make that competition in successive seasons themselves. This is a challenge — no disruptor clubs have qualified for the Champions League in successive seasons in over 20 years.

Even if Tottenham miss out on the Champions League for next season and several more afterwards, it will be their ability to monetise past success through commercial deals that may keep them in the 'Big Six'. Some fans think that investment in the stadium has affected investment in the team.

For example, Spurs made €297million in commercial revenue for 2023-24 to Newcastle’s €95m, buttressed by their new stadium and powerful brand. That commercial revenue, unlike broadcast revenue, is less reliant on Champions League qualification — of course the prestige has an impact, but the Londoners’ commercial revenue still grew from €261m the season before, despite the lack of elite European football.

The absence of silverware is highly frustrating for Spurs fans. New ownership could boost a recovery.

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The Political Economy of Football V2

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