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Champions League key to Newcastle's continued success

Since PIF took up a majority stake in Newcastle in October 2021 as the lead party in a consortium that wrested the club from the hands of Mike Ashley, the sovereign wealth fund’s financial commitment now stands at £528.7million ($703.4m) — £244.0m to buy the club (of the £305m total purchase price), and a further £284.7m injected into Newcastle since. In total, the club has received £335.4m in owner cash since the takeover.

In a financial sense, Newcastle’s post-Ashley world has been defined by what was a rare thing under their former owner: heavy losses. The first season under new guidance produced a pre-tax deficit of £72.9m, followed a year later with a £71.8m loss in 2022-23.

 Last season’s £11.1m in the red looks significantly improved against that backdrop, though were it not for a late-June flurry of transfer activity, the club would have posted three consecutive deficits in the region of £70m. Under Ashley, the club’s highest loss was £46.7m, incurred in the 2016-17 promotion season when Rafa Benitez was backed with significant sums (at least in the context of the Championship) to return Newcastle to the top tier.

Newcastle’s combined pre-tax loss over the 2022-24 profit and sustainability (PSR) cycle totalled £155.8m, leaving them with just over £50m in deductible costs to find to come in under the £105m PSR loss limit. It looked a tight squeeze. Newcastle’s depreciation and non-player amortisation costs over the cycle totalled £10.9m, while expenditure on the women’s team — albeit rising under new owners — was just £3.6m in the same three-year period.

Costs on the club’s academy and community development are unknown but ultimately came to at least the £36.3m the club needed to hit the £105m limit — though The Athletic estimates Newcastle’s PSR headroom last season was very much marginal.

In one sense, Newcastle were fortunate last season — UEFA’s football earnings rule, which limits club losses, wasn’t applied, as European football’s governing body gave clubs time to transition to new regulations. This season, club losses were limited to €80m over the previous two years but, without European football this year, Newcastle didn’t need to worry.

Wage bill and rising costs

Between Ashley’s final season and 2023-24, the club’s wage bill leapt £111.9m, while the cost of amortising player transfer fees was up a further £64.4m. Figures for the 2020-21 season were only over an 11-month accounting period, but even adjusting for that leaves a hefty increase over the past three years.

In terms of that wage bill, at £218.7m, it set a club record for the third year running, up 18 per cent on 2022-23. Yet while wages are growing, Newcastle have over-performed relative to their staff costs in both full seasons under Eddie Howe, first by a big margin — finishing fourth two seasons ago with the Premier League’s ninth-highest wage bill — and then closer to expectation — finishing seventh last season with the eighth-highest. Wage growth is unsurprising but Newcastle haven’t led the way either; Arsenal, Bournemouth and Aston Villa each displayed higher year-on-year growth last season.

Even with club record revenues of £320.3m last season, increased income has been outstripped by rising costs. That has left operating losses hovering around the £68m mark in each of the past two seasons and while six Premier League clubs posted a worse day-to-day result than Newcastle last season, a key reason they ran so close to the PSR brink was their pretty awful record of selling players for profit.

Where other clubs have routinely turned to player sales as a way to boost bottom lines, Newcastle have long been poor sellers. Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, they made just £10.4m profit on outgoing players. Thirty-three English clubs made a greater profit during those three seasons.

This season, Newcastle sold Miguel Almiron for £11m, a deal they will recognise a profit of about £9m on. A new Adidas deal (more on that in the next section) and a rise in gate receipts will boost revenue, but banking extra merit payments for finishing high up the table has become more important, as Newcastle could do with offsetting the £30m in lost UEFA income this term. 

Commercial revenue

Commercial revenues have more than tripled to £83.6m. From lower mid-table, Newcastle’s income here is now the largest outside the traditional ‘Big Six’. Their 375 per cent commercial income growth in the past three seasons is the highest of any club to have spent both of the two compared years in the top tier. No one else comes close — the next-highest growth from a club who was in the Premier League in both 2020-21 and last season is Fulham’s 155 per cent.

While little attempt has been made to hide newfound links to PIF and Saudi-backed companies, they form part of a wider commercial strategy undertaken since late 2021. Critiques of the non-existent attempts to grow commercial income under Ashley were well-founded; by the time he sold up, Newcastle’s commercial revenues were actually less than in his opening year in charge.

Newcastle have a long way to go to catch up to the ‘Big Six’ in England — Arsenal were bottom of that pack last season yet still booked commercial income of £218.3m — but they’ve rapidly moved into position as the highest-earning of the rest. 

Away from the playing squad, there’s been a noticeable uptick in capital expenditure. Spending on infrastructure under Ashley was damningly low, not even getting above the £1m mark in his final six years at the helm.

Since his departure, over £40m has been invested in fixed assets, principally in the form of improvements at St James’ Park and the club’s training ground, alongside repurchasing land behind the Gallowgate End (sold by Ashley) and, since then, investing in the Stack leisure hub and fanzone that now sits there.

When a decision will be arrived at is anyone’s guess, but improving matchday revenues seems necessary if Newcastle are to compete with the elite. Four English clubs currently boast over £100m in annual gate receipts; Newcastle, even with recent substantial growth, are only at half that.

Decisions to be made

Newcastle’s immediate future is reliant on PIF’s attitude and funding. A key reason the stadium plans remain mired in stasis is that all the big decisions, and particularly the expensive ones, must go through the Saudi branch of Newcastle’s ownership group. Without its say-so, nothing big gets done.

How much wider factors will influence PIF plans on Tyneside is unknown. Seeking to stem the tide of falling oil prices, PIF has reportedly scaled back or cut various projects. Giga-projects, including the futuristic city of Neom, have been reduced already; it’s unclear if such cuts would reach St James’ Park.

Of immediate focus is a return to the Champions League. Achieving that would bring not just sporting glee but could also solve many of their financial problems, with the tournament’s new format providing clubs with even more wealth. Newcastle’s earning potential would be hampered by UEFA rewarding clubs for historical performance, as it was in 2022-23, but there would still be plenty of cash to go around. The chance to further increase commercial income wouldn’t be sniffed at either.

Newcastle United are unrecognisable from October 2021. Being backed by one of the richest sovereign wealth funds on the planet has made a mark, believe it or not. Football’s financial regulations may have slowed that impact, but the club have still spent heavily.

The pump has been primed. Success has started to flow. How quickly more follows is anyone’s guess, but finishing in the top five next month should allow Newcastle’s owners to loosen the taps once more.

Eddie Howe has made a huge contribution to Newcastle's success and I wish him a speedy recovery from his shock illness.

 

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