The New York Times has taken a look at the financial implications of relegation from the top flight, although it hasn’t bothered to look at the bottom two clubs. I don’t think that Spurs are really in danger and Crystal Palacewill surely finish lower mid-table.
More likely than not, either West Ham or Nottingham Forest
will occupy the third relegation spot.
West Ham United
A return to the second division would bring huge
ramifications. Broadcast revenues —
money awarded from the Premier League — amounted to 57 per cent of their income
last season. There was £131million ($178.5m) of TV money banked courtesy of
finishing 14th in May, but parachute payments for a first year back in the Championship
would be in the region of £49m, with EFL TV money then bumping that up to
roughly £55m.
That drop-off is, obviously, enormous and would likely
ensure West Ham’s revenues were almost halved as a second-tier club again, once
you allow for the inevitable reductions in commercial and matchday revenues.
They have at least made provisions with a wage bill that had
climbed up to £175million last season, according to Deloitte’s research
for the Football Money League. That accounted for 74 per cent of turnover but,
as previously reported by The Athletic, there are 50 per cent
wage reductions written into contracts to limit the damage. There is also the chance to dismiss Nuno
Espirito Santo as head coach without compensation in the event of
relegation.
The London Stadium, too, is unlikely to be an onerous
financial burden. West Ham’s annual rent, will have from £4m to £2m in the
event of relegation, softening the almost inevitable fall in crowds that
currently average 62,453. [It’s a great financial deal, but has it knocked the
heart out of the club? I wouldn’t like
to watch football from behind an athletics track space].
Dubious recruitment, however, has left West Ham with limited
assets they could sell — the most common tactic for a relegated club to restore
financial calm. Beyond their England international captain Jarrod Bowen, it is
slim pickings now that Brazil midfielder LucasTheir most recent accounts,
covering the 2023-24 Premier League campaign, recorded an operating loss of
£77million, with an eventual profit entirely reliant on player sales of £100m.
Over two-thirds of the club’s income came from central broadcast revenues in
that campaign, and that ratio is likely to have been higher again when
finishing seventh last season. Paqueta has moved on.
Nottingham Forest
Their most recent accounts, covering the 2023-24 Premier
League campaign, recorded an operating loss of £77million, with an eventual
profit entirely reliant on player sales of £100m. Over two-thirds of the club’s
income came from central broadcast revenues in that campaign, and that ratio is
likely to have been higher again when finishing seventh last season.
This season is forecast to become Forest’s most lucrative
after returning to European football in the Europa League and advancing to the
knockout phase, beginning next week against Fenerbahce of Turkey, but
relegation would inevitably complicate long-term redevelopment plans for their
City Ground stadium.
If there are aces up Forest’s sleeve to ride out the storm
of relegation, it is the players in their squad who would inevitably be courted
if they went down. England internationals Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot
Anderson could be sold on for profits, as would Brazilian defender Murillo.
Cashing in on any two of those three, replicating a tactic of Ipswich Town when
moving on Liam Delap and Omari Hutchinson after their relegation last summer,
would be one solution to fund the shortfalls.
Marinakis, too, has shown himself to be among the game’s
most supportive owners. In the years between his arrival in 2017 and the most
recent accounts in June 2024, the Greek tycoon had invested north of
£170million in Forest. Much of that was when they were a Championship club,
indicating a willingness to offer financial support.
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