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If Forest or West Ham went down

The New York Times has taken a look at the financial implications of relegation from the top flight, although it hasn’t bothered to look at the bottom two clubs.   I don’t think that Spurs are really in danger and Crystal Palacewill surely finish lower mid-table.

More likely than not, either West Ham or Nottingham Forest will occupy the third relegation spot.

West Ham United

A return to the second division would bring huge ramifications.  Broadcast revenues — money awarded from the Premier League — amounted to 57 per cent of their income last season. There was £131million ($178.5m) of TV money banked courtesy of finishing 14th in May, but parachute payments for a first year back in the Championship would be in the region of £49m, with EFL TV money then bumping that up to roughly £55m.

That drop-off is, obviously, enormous and would likely ensure West Ham’s revenues were almost halved as a second-tier club again, once you allow for the inevitable reductions in commercial and matchday revenues.

They have at least made provisions with a wage bill that had climbed up to £175million last season, according to Deloitte’s research for the Football Money League. That accounted for 74 per cent of turnover but, as previously reported by The Athletic, there are 50 per cent wage reductions written into contracts to limit the damage.  There is also the chance to dismiss Nuno Espirito Santo as head coach without compensation in the event of relegation.

The London Stadium, too, is unlikely to be an onerous financial burden. West Ham’s annual rent, will have from £4m to £2m in the event of relegation, softening the almost inevitable fall in crowds that currently average 62,453.    [It’s a  great financial deal, but has it knocked the heart out of the club?  I wouldn’t like to watch football from behind an athletics track space].

Dubious recruitment, however, has left West Ham with limited assets they could sell — the most common tactic for a relegated club to restore financial calm. Beyond their England international captain Jarrod Bowen, it is slim pickings now that Brazil midfielder LucasTheir most recent accounts, covering the 2023-24 Premier League campaign, recorded an operating loss of £77million, with an eventual profit entirely reliant on player sales of £100m. Over two-thirds of the club’s income came from central broadcast revenues in that campaign, and that ratio is likely to have been higher again when finishing seventh last season. Paqueta has moved on.

Nottingham Forest

Their most recent accounts, covering the 2023-24 Premier League campaign, recorded an operating loss of £77million, with an eventual profit entirely reliant on player sales of £100m. Over two-thirds of the club’s income came from central broadcast revenues in that campaign, and that ratio is likely to have been higher again when finishing seventh last season.

This season is forecast to become Forest’s most lucrative after returning to European football in the Europa League and advancing to the knockout phase, beginning next week against Fenerbahce of Turkey, but relegation would inevitably complicate long-term redevelopment plans for their City Ground stadium.

If there are aces up Forest’s sleeve to ride out the storm of relegation, it is the players in their squad who would inevitably be courted if they went down. England internationals Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson could be sold on for profits, as would Brazilian defender Murillo. Cashing in on any two of those three, replicating a tactic of Ipswich Town when moving on Liam Delap and Omari Hutchinson after their relegation last summer, would be one solution to fund the shortfalls.

Marinakis, too, has shown himself to be among the game’s most supportive owners. In the years between his arrival in 2017 and the most recent accounts in June 2024, the Greek tycoon had invested north of £170million in Forest. Much of that was when they were a Championship club, indicating a willingness to offer financial support.

 

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