Why do solid mid-table clubs eventually fail?

The New York Times has taken an in depth and interesting look at why apparently solid mid-table clubs like Wolves eventually fall out of the Premier League.

My view is that they tell half the story.  Statistical analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between spend on players and success.   You can fit a reasonable linear two variable regression lin to the data.

Of course, there are outliers, clubs that punch below or above their weight: at the moment, Brentford on the positive side and Tottenham Hotspur on the downside.

However, I think the Premier League is essentially an oligopoly, i.e., competition is controlled for the benefit of a few producers.   The big six or maybe seven ensure that they remain at the top financially and in other terms.   Insurgents are tolerated to an extent because they make the competition look more competitive than it actually is, but are eventually sent packing.

In 2018, Stoke City and West Bromwich Albion both dropped into the Championship after 10 and eight years respectively of top-flight football. In 2023, Southampton’s 11-year stint came to an end, while Leicester City went down after eight seasons that included the most remarkable title triumph in Premier League history.

Charlton’s seven-year spell in the top division ended in 2007, and they have not been back since.* West Bromwich Albion, Leicester and Southampton have all returned for a single season in the top division in subsequent years, but their previous stories are typical of a host of clubs that have tried to narrow the gap to the division’s elite.

A pattern is clear.  Clubs who win promotion and survive their first season often solidify their Premier League status for a while. Sometimes they exceed expectations for a season or two, or even more. But, eventually, they succumb to the pressures of the division and slip back from whence they came.

Swansea City (Abertawe)

Swansea City are another of the 51 clubs to have played in the Premier League since its launch in 1992.   They climbed from the bottom tier of English league football to spend seven years in the top flight, achieving one top-half finish, a season in the Europa League and a League Cup win at Wembley 2013. In that time, they also basked in the unlikely presence of Denmark legend Michael Laudrup as manager and the crowning of heroes, including Spanish forward Michu.

But they have not returned since sliding out of the division in 2018 — a fate that former chairman Huw Jenkins believes was down as much to a shift in mentality as to any business or tactical decisions.

“For us, it was about sticking to our principles. We wanted to go out and be positive, trying to win games, and they didn’t change just because we were playing the supposed bigger teams.

“But the better we did, the more it became a mindset that we didn’t want to struggle and we needed to maintain what we had, and once that happens it becomes much much harder to get wins on the board and things change from that point.”

The formula for success in the Premier League for mid-sized clubs is complicated.  In commercial terms, growing revenue can help clubs invest in better players within the Premier League’s financial guidelines. But increasing matchday income can be difficult given that most clubs have a natural ceiling when it comes to the size of their fanbase — and it will be lower than that of Manchester United, Liverpool and the traditional heavyweights of the English game.

Broadcast revenue remains the biggest single source of income for Premier League clubs — a fact that explains the general fear of relegation and the loss of the hugely lucrative broadcast deals from which funds are split between the 20 top-flight clubs.  For most clubs, broadcast revenue equates to between 70 and 90 per cent of their overall turnover, with those with a lesser reliance on TV money regarded as more solid, sustainable businesses.

The Brentford story has been built on principles of stability and forward planning. Chairman Matthew Benham and director of football Phil Giles have been in place for more than a decade, while technical director Lee Dykes joined in 2019.  They plan three transfer windows ahead, try to add fresh voices to the senior management team regularly, attempt to raise player wages gradually and drive hard bargains when selling players.

*As a Charlton fan, I think that then chairman Richard Murray made a big mistake in not letting Alan Cutbishley see out the last year of his contract while they conducted a proper successor search rather than falling for the blandishments of Iain Dowie.