Do Newcastle need to sell their captain?

Rumours abound that Newcastle United’s captain, Bruno Guimarães, will be the next big name player to leave St James’ Park.

The Swiss Ramble has produced an in depth and highly informative analysis of the related financial position.   Unavoidably it requires making a series of assumptions about the club ‘s future finances.  The full analysis is available on his Substack page.

It is evident that clubs like Newcastle face big challenges from financial rules despite their sincere efforts to comply with them.   Many of us believe that the rules are designed to protect existing elite clubs from insurgents.  [WG]

The club’s supporters will be somewhat perplexed about losing another one of their stars, given that Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali have already been sold this summer, especially after they would have thought that any financial concerns should have been addressed by the record sale of Alexander Isak to Liverpool last September.

It was not meant to be this way when Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) acquired Newcastle United in October 2021. Indeed, the purchase of Guimarães in January 2022 was seen as a sign of intent, following the many years of austerity under Mike Ashley.

Many have pointed the finger of blame towards football’s financial regulations, which have undoubtedly presented the Geordies with some challenges in the past, but is that really the case this time?

In the 3-year monitoring period up to 2024/25, Newcastle lost a hefty £181m (excluding asset sales), which was one of the highest in the Premier League, illustrating the scale of their investment, as they strived to break through the glass ceiling.

UEFA’s maximum loss over the 3-year monitoring period is a lot smaller at €60m (around £52m), which is only around half of the Premier League’s £105m. In addition, UEFA is a lot stricter on the “creative” accounting that has been employed by English clubs to comply with PSR, such as inter-company sales of property and women’s teams, as well as any excessive profits from player swap deals.

That means that UEFA will have excluded the £133m profit from asset sales that Newcastle reported in 2024/25 from their calculation.

Newcastle were fined a total of €13m by UEFA, split between €10m for the breach of the Football Earnings rule and €3m for failing to comply with the Squad Cost rule.  However, only €6m of the fine was unconditional with the remaining €7m depending on whether Newcastle meet future financial targets imposed by UEFA as part of the 3-year settlement agreement.

Based on the size of their fines, which were much smaller than most of their English rivals, Newcastle’s breach was clearly not considered to be “significant”.  For example, Aston Villa, another aspirational club, were fined €20m for a Football Earnings breach in 2023/24 and €22.5m for a Squad Cost failure in 2025.

The latest accounts are not available, butNewcastle’s significant revenue growth is likely to have been eaten up by higher costs, which means that the operating loss has widened from £109m to £118m, though this was largely offset by the £97m profit on player sales.

Interest payable is up 20% to £11m, following the doubling of the revolving credit facility, which was moved from Deutsche Bank to First Abu Dhabi Bank.  As a result, the Swiss Ramble is forecasting a £31m pre-tax loss, compared to the £35m profit in 2024/25, though the previous season’s positive result was only thanks to the £133m gain on asset sales to another group company.

Newcastle should be OK in 2026/27, with or without the Gordon deal.   This time round, Newcastle have no issues with the Premier League’s PSR, though they do need to worry about complying with the UEFA settlement agreement.

There is certainly no big hole to fill, though that might change if they want to sign more players.  The point here is that Newcastle do not need to sell Bruno Guimarães in order to meet financial regulations, especially if Gordon’s sale is booked in 2026/27.

Any top player likes to be playing for a club that is challenging for honours, so Newcastle’s decline to 12th place last season will have given Guimarães pause for thought, not least because that means no Champions League this season.  Indeed, the lack of European football means that Newcastle has lost a large part of its appeal to potential signings, making it more difficult to strengthen the squad.

Newcastle have effectively become a selling club, frequently noting the importance of player trading for compliance with financial regulations.

The Swiss Ramble concludes: ‘Newcastle have certainly come a long way since PIF’s arrival, but they are still at a major financial disadvantage to the traditional elite, as evidenced by their struggles to comply with the governing bodies’ regulations, culminating in the club failing both sets of UEFA rules.   The fans would obviously be disappointed if their captain moved on, as this would bring into question Newcastle’s ambition, not least the stated objective of being one of “the top clubs in the world” by 2030.’