The Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ are on the hunt again. After last summer’s transfer window was characterised by the league’s financial powerhouses harvesting talent from their domestic competitors, the biggest moves of this window so far suggest that trend is set to continue.
All the mooted deals involve the Premier League’s
traditional powerhouses attempting to poach from their domestic competitors —
and in all cases, the would-be sellers insist their stars are not going
anywhere, or that it will take an enormous sum to persuade them otherwise. How
long can they hold out?
Many think that the financial fair play rules are designed to protect the existing elite and disadvantage aspirational clubs.
Aston Villa
As ever, much depends on finances. Close examination of
Villa’s situation reveals why they are determined to secure a huge fee for
Rogers if he departs and why they might face pressure
A UEFA settlement agreement will see them banned from Europe
for a year if they breach it. The agreement limits their 2026-27 losses to
zero, increasable by whatever headroom they had under a 2025-26 €60million
(about £51.4m) loss limit.
That headroom seems likely to be fairly limited, meaning
they will need to notably improve finances in 2026-27. They will benefit from
revenue from the Champions League this season, but they still made a
significant loss in the 2024-25 season when they were in the competition.
Under the settlement agreement, in 2027-28, Villa will be
assessed over the three seasons up to and including 2026-27, and need to be
within the usual acceptable limit of €60million (English clubs usually do not
get the theoretical possible extension to €90m) across those three seasons.
The club made a significant football earnings loss in
2024-25 and are expected to have lost a chunky sum in 2025-26 too — so will
need to turn a big profit in 2026-27 to be compliant and avoid a one-year ban
from UEFA competition. If clubs come calling with offers in the hundreds of
millions for Rogers, that will surely play a role in their thinking.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth are newly grappling with UEFA restrictions,
having qualified for European competition for the first time in their history.
They are likely to be compliant with the football earnings rule: they were
profitable in 2024-25, and it seems likely that will be the case in 2025-26.
They are now also subject to UEFA’s squad cost ratio (SCR)
rule, calculated over a calendar year, and this is more likely to pose an issue
in spite of increased turnover and player sales. The Europa League only offers
limited revenue, and the small size of their ground means an increase in money
from ticket sales will also be limited. Player sales are averaged over three
years in SCR calculations, so the boost from these is limited in the immediate
term.
In 2024-25, Bournemouth already carried a £158million wage
bill and £69m in player amortisation costs; it appears difficult for the club
to limit their squad cost to 70 per cent of their income.
Newcastle
And what of Newcastle? Financial considerations have forced
them to let go of players before: Elliot Anderson’s sale to Nottingham Forest
in 2024 was one example. Anthony Gordon’s €80million (£69m) move to Barcelona
was partly to raise the funds needed for serious investment in the squad this
summer.
The good news is that the huge sales they have made in
recent windows — of Alexander Isak for £125m last summer, and now Gordon and
soon Tonali — will have drastically improved their bottom line. Newcastle’s
absence from Europe for 2026-27 means they only need to comply with the Premier
League’s 85 per cent squad cost threshold rather than UEFA’s stricter 70 per
cent, though they will of course hope to be back in Europe the season after and
should prepare accordingly.
Painful as some of the exits are at St James’ Park, they
should mean that, financially, there is no pressure to make further sales. Of
course, though, that is not the only factor. Newcastle know all too well the
sway that individual ambition can have in negotiations: it was ultimately Isak
making clear his desire to move and effectively going on strike that forced
through his transfer to Liverpool last summer.
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