Oxford United are not the club of dreaming spires. That mantle belongs to non-league Oxford City once chaired by the warden of Nuffield College, Sir Norman Chester who wrote a long forgotten government report on the future of football.
Oxford United were originally Headington United and crook
Robert Maxwell has to plan to merger them with Reading as the Thames Valley
Royals playing at Didcot.
The Swiss Ramble analyses the situation of the club, having
to base his analysis on th 2024/25 accounts which are the lates t
available. More on his Substack page.
The last few years have been a bit of a roller coaster for
Oxford United, featuring promotion to England’s second tier for the first time
in 25 years, followed by relegation to League One, as well as uncertainty
around the stadium, numerous changes off the pitch, issues with the EFL’s
financial regulations and most recently a transfer embargo.
Questions about the owners
It’s clearly not a great look, when the owners have not
actually provided the funding that could have avoided this predicament,
especially as they have been presented as very wealthy with a willingness to
invest in the club. As the old saying goes, actions speak louder than words.
It would appear that the owners simply did not want to put
in enough money to cover the budget shortfall against the SCMP target, at least
not right now.
Erick Thohir significantly increased his controlling
interest in Oxford last November, so is clearly now the main man (or “the
ultimate controlling party” per the club accounts). The Indonesian businessman
was already a majority shareholder, having acquired a 51% stake alongside
Anindya Bakrie back in September 2022 from Thai entrepreneur Sumrith “Tiger”
Thanakarnjanasuth, who had previously been part of the consortium that owned
Reading.
Oxford’s future is dominated by discussions about the
stadium, as they plan to build a new stadium in an area known as the Triangle
near Kidlington, close to Oxford Parkway station. After a series of delays,
planning permission was granted by the council in August 2025, though a couple
of important steps still remain.
The site will include a 16,000-capacity stadium, a
1,000-capacity conference and exhibition centre and a 180-room Radisson hotel,
as well as bars, restaurants and fitness and entertainment facilities. More
than half of the hotel’s guest rooms will overlook the pitch. This ambitious project is estimated to cost
around £150-170m, but is clearly an essential development for the club’s
owners.
Oxford have faced a few financial problems in the past,
often linked to the stadium, so older supporters would be forgiven for
experiencing a bad case of déjà vu.
In 1998 issues around a proposed move away from the Manor Ground in
Headington ultimately led to Kassam taking ownership of the club for just £1,
though he did take on around £15m of debt. After further difficulties, Oxford
entered administration in 2006, resulting in a 10-point deduction which
contributed to their relegation to the Conference.
Despite promotion to the Championship, Oxford’s pre-tax loss
actually increased from £15.9m to £17.5m in 2024/25. Revenue shot up £10.6m (125%) from £8.4m to
£19.0m, a new club record, but this was more than offset by the increased cost
of playing in the higher division, as operating expenses rose £14.4m (70%) from
£20.4m to £34.8m.
Clearly, Oxford’s £17.5m loss is far from great, but in
fairness it’s far from out of the ordinary in this ultra-competitive division,
where only three clubs made money, namely Luton Town £17.9m, Sheffield United
£2.6m and Plymouth Argyle £0.3m.
Oxford’s bottom line hardly benefited at all from player
sales, as they only generated £0.1m profit, even lower than the previous
season’s £0.6m. Most of the departures were on free transfers, while the only
deal that is likely to have brought in any money was Marcus McGuane to Bristol
City.
Relegation will see revenue fall
Oxford’s revenue will significantly fall following
relegation, mainly due to the lower broadcasting rights. Their most recent
revenue in League One in 2023/24 was £8.4m, which just about put them in the
top ten, albeit far below Bolton Wanderers £21.3m, Derby County £19.4m and
Portsmouth £13.6m.
Oxford’s 11,358 average attendance was the smallest in the
Championship in 2024/25, just behind Luton Town’s 11,555, though there was a
sizeable gap to the next lowest, Millwall 15,497.
Oxford’s wage bill almost doubled, rising £10.4m (92%) from
£11.3m to £21.7m, as they tried to build a squad that could be competitive in
the Championship. The previous season was inflated by a promotion bonus, but by
the same token 2024/25 would have included a survival bonus.
There was a significant increase in other expenses, which
were up by around a third, rising from £7.9m to £10.2m, which the club said was
due to ”the increased operational footprint required in the Championship”. This
includes relatively high rent paid to Kassam for use of the stadium.
Levels of debt
It’s worth noting that Oxford’s debt is very high compared
to revenue, representing just over three times of annual income, which was
fifth highest in the Championship in 2024/25.
The multiple will be even higher after relegation, as revenue will be
smaller, while debt will have further increased in 2025/26.
This is not a major problem, so long as the owners are still
willing to support the club, but this cannot always be guaranteed, as we saw
with Dejphon Chansiri at Sheffield Wednesday.
The owners have provided £39m in the last three years, that
is undoubtedly true. Indeed, the support will become even more critical, as the
new stadium progresses, because it seems unlikely that this development will be
entirely funded by external debt,
Deep pockets needed
The Swiss Ramble concludes: ‘Oxford were always going to be
up against it in the Championship, as they were ranked in the relegation zone
in most of the key financial metrics. As an example, they had the lowest
revenue and the third lowest wages.
It goes without saying that a transfer embargo cannot be
considered as good news. Even though it is not as bad as, say, a points
deduction or an announcement of a winding-up order from HMRC, it still must be
alarming to Oxford United’s supporters, especially given some of the issues
faced by the club in the past.
Like the vast majority of clubs, Oxford lose a lot of money,
which has required significant financial support from the owner. This will
continue to be the case until the new stadium is completed. In fact, while this
is being constructed, the financial shortfall will be even larger.
The added complication for Oxford is the fact that they do
not own their stadium - and the clock is ticking on a lease that runs out in
less than two years.
In short, Thohir will have to demonstrate that he has deep
pockets: first, to address the transfer embargo, so Oxford are able to bring in
new players in the January window; second, to continue to cover operational
losses; third, to fund a sizeable chunk of the new stadium development. It’s a big ask. Whether it’s too big an ask
remains to be seen..
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