Optimism in the air at Swansea (Abertawe)

Optimistiaeth yn yr awyr yn Abertawe

I was surprised when one of my granddaughters announced that she had discovered her inner Welsh woman despite not speaking a word of Cymraeg.   I was even more surprised when she applied for a job at Swansea City given that she has no interest in football.   She didn’t get it, but she soon landed a similar backroom finance role at a firm of solicitors.   She is now completing on an immaculate three-bedroom property with garden and parking for a figure in the low £100ks.  Meanwhile her cousin has moved Into a two bedroom property in Oxford costing over £300k.

What follows draws on analysis by the Swiss Ramble and far more detail is available on his Substack page.

There’s been little for Swansea City fans to get excited about in recent seasons, but there is just a hint of optimism in the air this summer.  The initial 2-1 win away at Stoke should boost morale.  Perhaps most excitingly, Swansea have partnered with Jamestown Analytics, a sports data and player-recruitment firm tied to Brighton & Hove Albion owner Tony Bloom.

CEO Tom Gorringe, said, “This partnership is a real coup for the club. Jamestown are widely regarded as leaders in data led player recruitment, and we have seen the success that many of their partner clubs have achieved over recent times. Jamestown only works with an exclusive list of clubs and we are honoured to now join that group.” That list includes Hearts, Union Saint-Gilloise and Como, who have all greatly benefited from this association.

Swansea have attracted some famous new investors, including Luka Modric, Snoop Dogg and Martha Stewart. Even though they have only bought minority stakes, Swansea’s owners believe that such celebrity partnerships will help boost the club’s global profile, describing the investments as “an endorsement of the club’s ambition and vision”.  More tangibly, this is a clear attempt to help drive commercial growth, in much the same way as Hollywood’s Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney have done for Wrexham, another Welsh club.

Swansea had been owned by an American consortium since July 2016, when Jason Levien and Stephen Kaplan bought a controlling interest in the club.  However, in November 2024 they sold their 65% stake to three other existing shareholders, namely Andy Coleman, Brett Cravatt and Nigel Morris, who were joined by Jason Cohen, a business associate of Cravatt’s. Coleman has since stepped down as chairman.

According to the club website, Swansea Football LLC (controlled by Cravatt and Cohen) now own 82.7%, while Morris has 10.3%, leaving the Supporters Trust with 6.4% (including its protected 5% ownership position).   n addition, the club announced a long-term strategic partnership with Shamrock Capital, a Los Angeles-based investment firm.  Although Shamrock has “committed significant capital designed to support Swansea’s strategic prioritie wansea’s £21.6m loss is far from great, but in fairness most clubs lose money in this ultra-competitive division, where only three clubs posted profits, namely Luton Town £17.9m, Sheffield United £2.6m and Plymouth Argyle £0.3m.s and future growth”, the club has indicated that they will not become shareholders.

Swansea need to do something to break out of their current malaise, as next season will be their tenth in the second tier after relegation in 2017/18.They had enjoyed seven seasons in the top flight, which included twice finishing in the top ten and qualifying for the Europa League when they won the League Cup in 2012/13.

Swansea’s pre-tax loss in 2024/5 widened from £15.2m to £21.6m, a new club record. This was despite revenue rising £0.8m (3%) from £21.5m to £22.3m, as operating expenses increased by £4.3m (9%) from £47.0m to £51.3m (largely due to the 11th month accounts effect).

Swansea’s loss would have been even higher without £8.1m profit on player sales, though this was down £2.4m from the previous season’s £10.5m. This was mainly from the sales Matt Grimes to Coventry City and Nathan Wood to Southampton.  The gain was fairly low for the Championship, as clubs are increasingly focused on player trading to help balance their books.

Swansea have lost money in six of their seven years in the Championship, including a hefty £68m in the last four seasons, when their average annual deficit was £17m. Indeed, if we were to adjust 2023/24 for the 11th month impact, the bottom line has steadily worsened five years in a row.

Swansea benefited from parachute payments in the past, receiving £92m between 2018/19 and 2020/21, which has effectively been wasted.  Like all other non-parachute clubs in the Championship, the Swans have struggled to compete since these ended.

Swansea’s crowds continued to fall in 2024/25, dropping from 16,574 to 15,499, though they rebounded to 16,786 last season. Nevertheless, this was still around 4,000 lower than the 20,600 that they consistently attracted in the Premier League.  In fact, Swansea’s 15,499 average attendance in 2024/25 was one of the smallest in the Championship, only above Millwall, Luton Town and Oxford United.  They were miles below the likes of Sunderland 41,158, Leeds United 36,134, Derby County 29,018 and Sheffield United 28,087.

Swansea have been in negotiations with the council to purchase outright the Swansea.com Stadium, which Gorringe described as “a move that will safeguard the future of the club”.

Wages have been cut by 71% (£70m) since the Premier League peak of £99m eight years ago, first falling after relegation to the Championship, then further decreasing after parachute payments stopped.  Swansea’s £29.0m wage bill was in the bottom half of the Championship, sandwiched between Derby County £31.5m and Millwall £28.6m. There’s normally a decent correlation between wages and performance in the Championship, so Swansea outperformed their budget in 2024/25, as they finished 11th in the league, which was three places better than their wages ranking of 14th.

One area where Swansea have done well is keeping a lid on other expenses, which have hovered around the £14m level for the last five years, i.e. less than half of the £28.9m in the last season in the Premier League.

Although there has been a clear slowdown since relegation from the Premier League, Swansea’s gross transfer spend has been on the rise recently, averaging £9.0m in the last four years, compared to just £2.7m in the previous 3-year period.

The board formally acknowledged its “thanks to the ownership group for their continued support of our club”, which included £21.0m of share capital in 2024/25, then a further £10.0m of shares subsequent to these accounts. That means that the owners have put in around £88m in the last four years.   in the three years up to 2024/25 their £78m funding was one of the highest in the Championship, only surpassed by two clubs that have spent many years in the Premier League, namely Leeds United and Norwich City.

The Swiss Ramble concludes: ‘The extension of play-off places to eight this season will give clubs like Swansea a greater chance of going up, but it also means there is more temptation to spend, which is not necessarily a good thing.  Most Swans’ fans will probably not be overly concerned, preferring to judge the owners on how the team performs on the pitch, so a good start to the season is imperative.’