From his Zurich fastness, the Swiss Ramble considers whether Arsenal’s transfer spending has been constrained by financial regulations. His workings out and much more interesting detail can be found on his Substack page.
By most standards Arsenal had a decent transfer window, as
they managed to strengthen their midfield and defence, but many of their fans
were still left disappointed by the absence of a marquee signing in attack.
Excluding the various add-ons, Arsenal’s £196m gross spend
was a lot lower than many of their rivals, so it was less than half of
Manchester City’s £458m, while four other clubs splashed out more than a
quarter of a billion, namely Chelsea £362m, Tottenham £319m, Newcastle United
£274m and Aston Villa £261m. Of course,
many of these clubs also sold well, especially Chelsea £419m, Aston Villa
£318m, Manchester City £301m and Newcastle United £243m, all of whom generated
significantly more than Arsenal’s £103m.
Is the club sailing close to the wind?
There have been a few whispers that Arsenal’s transfer
activity this summer was restricted by the need to comply with financial
regulations, with some suggesting that the club is sailing quite close to the
wind. These people argue that this is why they had to raise a decent sum from
player sales, as well as keeping a close eye on the financial impact of any
incomings. In response, the club has
denied that it is at risk of a breach, but there will always be some that say
“there is no smoke without fire”.
Taking all the streams together, the Swiss Ramble forecasts
a sizeable £103m (15%) increase in Arsenal’s revenue from £690m to £793m in
2025/26, which would be a big new high for English clubs, overtaking Manchester
City’s previous record of £719m in 2023/24.
This highlights the importance of success on the pitch to a club’s
finances, after Arsenal did fantastically well in the major competitions,
winning the Premier League and reaching the final of the Champions League.
Although other expenses tend to go under the radar, they
have become an increasingly important element in a club’s cost base. They can
be influenced by things like hosting more games, European qualification (higher
travel and accommodation), staging non-football events and inflationary
increases in services and utilities.
Arsenal’s £201m other expenses were already the highest in
the Premier League in 2024/25, which the club said reflected “increased staging
costs, specific direct costs of delivering increased revenues, certain residual
property matters and inflationary pressures.”
Arsenal’s profit on player sales significantly decreased
last season from £81m to just £15m, which would have been even lower without the
SR’s assumption that the Kiwior and Hein deals were completed before the
2025/26 close. This season will be much
better with an estimated £72m profit, very largely from the club record sale of
Gabriel Martinelli, though Leandro Trossard’s move to Besiktas delivered £10m.
So success on the pitch will have increased Arsenal’s
revenue to an English record of £793m in 2025/26, but this will be largely
eaten up by a similar rise in operating expenses, mainly on higher wages and
player amortisation.
The various regulations appraised
Even with the projected £58m loss in 2025/26, Arsenal would
have had no problems with the Premier League’s PSR. Arsenal are also miles better than UEFA’s
football earnings target, even though the maximum allowable loss over 3 years
is much tighter at only €5m (no equity contribution that would bring this up to
€60m).
The one regulation which might potentially give Arsenal some
problems is UEFA’s squad cost rule, where the 70% target is much tougher than
the Premier League’s 85%. Using some
broad brush assumptions, the Zurich-based analyst reckon that Arsenal’s squad
cost ratio for the 2026 calendar year will be 64%, so a fair way below UEFA’s
70% target.
The main risk is Arsenal’s form falling off a cliff, as
earnings would be much lower if they were less successful in the Premier League
and Champions League. However, Arteta’s “mean machine” has shown little sign of
slowing down any time soon. In short, if Arsenal did want to sign a world-class
talent, they would not be restricted by financial regulations, at least not for
the foreseeable future.
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