City: be careful what you wish for

'We know no spectacle so ridiculous as the British public in one of its periodical fits of morality.' So said Thomas Macaulay many years ago.

There is certainly an outbreak of sporting morality over Manchester City with fans of other clubs salivating at the prospect of their destruction. However, it is important to weigh up the consequences both inside and outside football.

I am not a City supporter and clearly they have to be sanctioned for their conduct (what that sanction should be is above my pay grade). However, it is also important not to bring the whole horse of cards down. I deal with the geopolitical concerns in another post, but it is worth quoting at length from what Martin Samuel had to say in the Sunday Times.

'What if the unforeseen consequence of any punishment finishes not just a corrupt regime, but an entire football club? Manchester City’s executives did wrong. That does not mean Manchester City should cease to exist. It does not mean that those who follow the club, who love the club, who grew up with the club in their family and their bones, should be left with nothing. Censuring City should begin with one thought: how do we save this club from oblivion? How to avoid an extinction event?

So who cares if Manchester City die? More folk than you think, perhaps. People at Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Everton, Bournemouth, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace, Lyon, Lens, AC Milan, Lille and RB Leipzig. All have sold players for substantial money to City in recent seasons, all will be awaiting payment. And needing payment, too, if their own figures are to add up. If Chelsea’s sale of Enzo Fernández is spread over five seasons, for instance, the club could be owed as much as £100million; Forest close to that for Elliot Anderson. They need City alive and paying.

And if punishment is handled carelessly, could they fold? Of course. City’s expulsion from the Premier League, for instance, would leave them with nowhere to play. It is very different to relegation. The EFL accepts three relegated clubs from above, exchanging them for three promoted ones. Expulsion is an antithetic event. If the Premier League clubs voted to expel Manchester City, the EFL is uncompelled to take them.

It would require a consensual vote of clubs in the league to which City were demoted. This is a dangerous game.

Even if City’s owners were happy to depart, who would take on a business in which legal liability could run towards £1billion? A club cannot even exit administration without meeting all its football debts. There would be no prospect of success, no joy, no hope. To indemnify any new owners — let’s say a supporters’ trust — would displease those pursuing compensation. What are the claimants to do then? Go after Sheikh Mansour personally, with all the financial risk entailed?

In five years, the cost of running the Premier League has risen from £45million to £225million annually, much of it in legal fees.

So, if Abu Dhabi leave, City will be liquidated. And if City are liquidated, that ends it all. The claims, the outstanding transfer fees, even the walk of shame. The protagonists leave, the club ceases to exist, the fans are bereft and Chelsea are left clutching an unpaid invoice for £100million. Is that really victory?'

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The Political Economy of Football V2

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